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| The falling dollar THE dollar’s tumble this week was attended by predictable shrieks from the markets; but as it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004. The recent decline was triggered by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that the housing market’s troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In contrast, German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling. Yet cyclical factors only partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is based more on structural factors-or, more accurately, on an illusion about structural differences between the American and European economies. The main reason for the dollar’s strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly outperformed the world’s other richcountry economies in recent years. But the figures do not support the hype. Sure, America’s GDP growth has been faster than Europe’s, but that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Dig deeper and the difference shrinks. Official figures of productivity growth, which should in theory be an important factor driving currency movements, exaggerate America’s lead. If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is now slowing in America, it is accelerating in the euro zone. So, contrary to popular perceptions, America’s economy has not significantly outperformed Europe’s in recent years. And to achieve this not-much-better-than parity, America has had to pump itself full of steroids. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit (after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply, while American households’ saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal stimulus and household saving barely budged. America’s growth, thus, has been driven by consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a prolonged period of slower growth. As for Europe, the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labour markets. But that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar. 考研詞匯： tumble[ˈtʌmbəl] v.①(使)摔倒;②打滾，翻騰;n.摔跤，跌倒 slip[slip] v.①滑，滑倒;②滑落，滑掉;③溜走;n.疏忽，小錯(cuò)，口誤，筆誤 [真題例句] Step outside and you could break a leg slipping (v.①) on your doormat.[1999年閱讀1] [例句精譯] 如果你走出去，可能會(huì)滑倒在門墊上，摔傷一條腿。 assiduously [əˈsidjuəsli] ad.勤勉地, 懇切地 exaggerate[igˈzædʒəreit] v.夸大，夸張 [真題例句] Concerns were raised (49：that) witnesses might be encouraged to exaggerate their stories in court to (50：ensure) guilty verdicts.[2001年完形] [例句精譯]人們開始擔(dān)心：(接受報(bào)酬)可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)證人在法庭上夸大他們經(jīng)歷的事情，以保證(陪審團(tuán)對被告)作出有罪的判決。 outperform [autpə’fɔ:m] vt.做得比......好,勝過 dwindle [ˈdwindl] v.縮小 背景常識介紹： 美元持續(xù)走低，意味著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)存在缺陷，但是否就意味著地球上其他國家也將遭受劫難?答案是否定的。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將從美元的逐步下滑中受益。這將有助于緩解全球流動(dòng)資金失衡狀況，并且通過將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到美國可貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域，緩沖房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅給美國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的震蕩。誠然，美元的下滑將影響歐洲及亞洲的出口，但如果這些地區(qū)的央行現(xiàn)有的利率走低，進(jìn)而促進(jìn)內(nèi)需-這也正是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)達(dá)到重新平衡所需要的局面-那么這種影響將會(huì)被抵消。現(xiàn)今歐洲及亞洲的強(qiáng)勢增長也將有助于防止美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的低迷蔓延至整個(gè)世界。 參考譯文： 下跌的美元 這周，因?yàn)榭深A(yù)見的市場縮小，美元保持了下降的趨勢。隨著美元匯率下降到二十個(gè)月來的最低點(diǎn)($1.32比1歐元)，唯一可以算得上令人驚訝的恐怕是對于美元未來前景的悲觀預(yù)測。有充分的理由令人相信美元的下降趨勢將繼續(xù)下去，甚至打破2004年十二月創(chuàng)造的$1.36比1歐元的歷史最低點(diǎn)。 近期關(guān)于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的大量負(fù)面新聞可以說是美元持續(xù)貶值的主要誘因。這一周來的新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國房市的問題對經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了全局性的影響。消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)和耐用品訂單量都顯示了比預(yù)期中更嚴(yán)重的下滑。另一方面，德國商業(yè)信心指數(shù)創(chuàng)下了歷史新高，而中國中央銀行的近期言論更令人猜測其政策開始從囤積美元向出售美元傾斜。 但是，運(yùn)用周期性因素去解釋美元在歷史上的上佳表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)被證明是片面的了。美元對投資者的吸引力很大程度上基于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)要素--或者更準(zhǔn)確地說，投資者對于美國和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)差別的錯(cuò)覺。 美元過去強(qiáng)勢的主因是大多數(shù)投資者認(rèn)為：在近幾年內(nèi)，相對與其他富裕國家，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體表現(xiàn)十分出眾。但數(shù)據(jù)顯示這種觀念是錯(cuò)誤的。的確，美國的國民生產(chǎn)總值增長速度要高于歐洲國家，但是這主要?dú)w功于美國快速增長的人口總量。對經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的更深層思考顯示歐美經(jīng)濟(jì)差異并沒有表面數(shù)據(jù)顯示的那樣大。生產(chǎn)力增長的官方數(shù)據(jù)雖然在理論上是影響貨幣匯率走向的重要指標(biāo)，但實(shí)際上卻夸大了美國的領(lǐng)先地位。如果將歐美放在同一指標(biāo)上進(jìn)行忽略其地緣及人口增長的公平比較，過去十年里歐美的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)基本上是同樣的。更重要的是，最新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)前美國的生產(chǎn)力增長正在放緩，而歐元區(qū)的生產(chǎn)力增長則在加速。 因此，和流行的觀念恰恰相反，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)今年的整體表現(xiàn)并不明顯強(qiáng)于歐洲的同期經(jīng)濟(jì)整體表現(xiàn)。同時(shí)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)含水量豐富。自2000年以來，美國的結(jié)構(gòu)性財(cái)政赤字顯著提高(對經(jīng)濟(jì)周期對財(cái)政狀況的影響進(jìn)行修正后)。同時(shí)，隨著美國家庭儲蓄率持續(xù)下降，美國的流動(dòng)資金赤字迅速增長。而在同一時(shí)期，歐元區(qū)的各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的財(cái)政狀況良好，而家庭儲蓄也基本保持不變。 美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，在過去的一段時(shí)間里被消費(fèi)增長所拉動(dòng)。而消費(fèi)增長則是建立在儲蓄下降和負(fù)債增多的基礎(chǔ)上的。很明顯，這種形式的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是無法持久的，而因之造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)以及財(cái)政的不平衡的后果也將不可避免的出現(xiàn)。隨著這種消費(fèi)主因的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的消退，國家將可能面對長時(shí)間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩。 就歐洲而言，這塊年邁的大陸被缺乏彈性的產(chǎn)品和勞工市場拖得步履闌珊。但是，雖然聽起來有些荒謬，這種狀況相對來說可能是一種優(yōu)勢：它意味著歐洲人有很大的空間去改善他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。一些歐洲國家開始慎重考慮(并在小范圍內(nèi)試行)他們的下一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)改革。如果這些改革成功，他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將在未來顯著加快。一旦投資者發(fā)現(xiàn)這點(diǎn)，他們很可能認(rèn)為歐元相比美元將是更加有利的選擇。 |
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